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Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202020
800 PM PDT Tue Nov 03 2020
 
Satellite images indicate that Odalys has not changed much since 
genesis earlier today.  The cyclone still has a large curved band on 
the western side of the storm, but there is little organized 
convection to the east of the center.  The overall circulation 
remains quite broad and appears elongated from northeast to 
southwest. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were both 
T2.5/35 kt at 0000Z, and the ADT and SATCON numbers from CIMSS at 
the University of Wisconsin are about the same.  Based on these 
estimates, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt.
 
Odalys could strengthen slightly overnight and early Wednesday while 
it remains over warm water and in moderate wind shear conditions.  
However, the models agree that any opportunity for strengthening 
should end in about 24 hours when Odalys moves into a region of 
strong southerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear.  The 
combination of the increasing shear, cooler waters, and drier and 
more stable air should cause Odalys to begin weakening by Wednesday 
night or early Thursday.  The cyclone is now forecast to degenerate 
into a remnant low on Friday, but that could occur even sooner.  The 
NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is 
in line with the majority of the guidance.
 
The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt on 
the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge that is centered over 
southern Texas and northern Mexico.  A continued west-northwest to 
northwest motion, but at a slower pace, is expected during the next 
24 to 36 hours.  After that time, a turn to the west and then the 
southwest is forecast as the weaker and more shallow Odalys should 
be steered by the low-level northeasterly trade winds.  The models 
are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast is just an update 
of the previous one.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 14.9N 117.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 16.0N 118.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 17.3N 120.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 18.1N 122.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 18.5N 124.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  06/1200Z 18.1N 125.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 17.3N 126.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0000Z 15.6N 129.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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