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Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192020
300 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020
 
Deep convection has persisted near the center of Norbert for the 
past several hours. However, a recent ASCAT overpass as well as 
visible satellite imagery revealed that the low-level circulation is 
becoming elongated. In addition, the wind field surrounding the 
depression suggests that is remains very near, if not embedded in 
the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The initial intensity of 
25 kt is based off data from the ASCAT overpass. The GFS and ECMWF 
both indicate that Norbert will open into a trough as it becomes 
absorbed into the ITCZ in a couple of days, and the official 
forecast now indicates dissipation just after 48 h.
 
Norbert continues to move toward the northwest at 3 kt. A slow 
northwestward motion is expected until dissipation as the cyclone is 
steered by weak mid-level ridging to its northeast. The latest NHC 
track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near 
the various track consensus guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 13.5N 106.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 13.8N 106.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 14.4N 107.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 14.7N 107.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 14.9N 107.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
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Forecaster Latto
 
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