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Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192020
900 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020
 
Although the deep convection associated with Norbert has increased 
this morning during the diurnal maximum, it is lacking in 
organization. However, this new convection has bought the depression 
some time as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 25 
kt based off the latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from 
TAFB. Since there is plenty of warm water along Norbert's forecast  
track, the cyclone will likely continue to sputter rounds of 
convection like this morning's for the next couple of days, which 
should at least maintain the system as a tropical depression during 
that time. In a few days, it is expected that the combination of a 
slow spin down of Norbert's vortex, and an increase in the 
environmental low-level flow should cause the system to open into a 
trough of low pressure. The latest NHC forecast no longer indicates 
a remnant low phase, but instead forecasts Norbert to remain a weak 
depression until dissipation in a few days. This solution is in 
agreement with the majority of the global models.
 
Norbert is finally making its anticipated move toward the northwest,
albeit at a meager 3 kt. A slow northwestward motion is expected
until dissipation as the cyclone is steered by weak mid-level
ridging to its northeast. The latest NHC track forecast is little
changed from the previous one, and is near the various track
consensus guidance.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 13.3N 106.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 13.6N 106.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 14.1N 107.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 14.6N 107.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 14.8N 107.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  12/0000Z 14.9N 108.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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Forecaster Latto
 
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