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Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192020
900 PM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020

Norbert's satellite presentation has changed little in the past 
several hours. Intermittent bursts of deep convection continue 
to pulse near the center, and the depression's asymmetric 
appearance indicates it is still experiencing southeasterly shear. 
The initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on a T1.5 Dvorak 
classification from TAFB and earlier satellite-derived wind data.

Environmental conditions are not expected to change much during the 
next several days. Norbert will remain over warm sea-surface 
temperatures, but weak to moderate east-southeasterly shear will 
likely persist over the cyclone. Little intensity change is 
expected over the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast 
keeps Norbert as a 25-kt tropical depression through the next 60 
h, although minor intensity fluctuations are possible. Between 
36-72 h, increasing deep-layer shear should expedite Norbert's 
degeneration into a remnant low, and this advisory calls for 
Norbert to become a remnant low at 72 h.   

Norbert has moved little in the past 6-12 h, as the large-scale 
steering currents remain weak. A weak mid-level ridge is forecast 
to build to the northeast of the cyclone Friday through Saturday, 
which should steer Norbert slowly west-northwestward or 
northwestward. A mid- to upper-level low is expected to move across 
northern Mexico on Sunday, which could cause Norbert to stall or 
meander once again if it remains a depression. Later in the 
forecast period, whatever remains of Norbert should move westward 
as it becomes embedded within the low-level easterly trades. The 
latest NHC track forecast is adjusted slightly towards the left of 
the previous forecast, in line with the latest model consensus.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 13.0N 106.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 13.1N 106.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 13.5N 106.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 14.2N 107.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 14.6N 107.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  11/1200Z 14.8N 107.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 15.0N 107.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/0000Z 15.0N 109.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
 
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