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Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
900 PM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020
Tropical Depression Norbert is still struggling to maintain any
deep convection near its center. Satellite imagery indicates the
low-level center remains exposed, and a small convective burst
noted in recent infrared imagery is already collapsing. The initial
intensity is perhaps generously held at 30 kt based on a blend of
recent objective satellite estimates and Dvorak classifications
from TAFB and SAB. Overnight scatterometer data should help further
assess whether additional weakening has occurred.
Norbert continues to meander within a weak steering pattern, and
its center has drifted southeast of the previous advisory position.
Little movement is expected during the next 12 h, but Norbert
should begin slowly moving west-southwestward from 12-36 h. Then,
the cyclone should move west-northwestward or northwestward at
around 5 kt for the remainder of the forecast period as a mid-level
ridge builds to the north and northeast of Norbert. No significant
changes were made to the NHC track forecast with this advisory.
Although current satellite trends do not bode well for Norbert, the
system remains embedded in a favorable environment of warm water
and light vertical wind shear. The latest SHIPS guidance suggests
the deep-layer shear will increase slightly during the next 24 h,
which combined with any more dry air intrusions could cause Norbert
to degenerate into a remnant low. On the other hand, increasing
mid-level moisture and weaker shear beyond this time period could
allow for a convective burst capable of getting Norbert back to
minimal tropical storm strength. Given the mixed signals for small
intensity fluctuations in either direction, the official intensity
forecast holds Norbert's intensity steady for the next several
days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0300Z 13.2N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 13.2N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 13.1N 107.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 13.0N 107.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 13.2N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 13.9N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 14.9N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 17.0N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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