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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192020
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020
 
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is beginning to show better signs of 
organization tonight. Recent satellite imagery depicts a burst of 
deep convection near the estimated center of the depression with 
cloud top temperatures colder than -70 degrees Celsius. This trend, 
along with recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimates, suggests the system may 
be nearing tropical storm strength. The initial intensity is 
perhaps conservatively held at 30 kt for this advisory based on 
earlier T2.0 classifications from TAFB and SAB.  

The estimated initial motion of the depression remains 340/6 kt. 
This general motion should continue through the overnight hours as 
the system is steered by a mid-level ridge over southern Mexico. 
As the ridge weakens through the middle of the week, the steering 
currents will break down and the system will likely meander well 
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico for several days. By 
days 4-5, global models indicate the ridge should rebuild over 
southern Mexico, which would eventually support a northwestward 
motion late in the forecast period. The NHC forecast track shows 
little change with this advisory, and remains close to the HFIP 
corrected consensus HCCA.  

The intensity forecast remains challenging with above average spread 
in the guidance. The environmental conditions generally appear 
favorable, with low to moderate deep-layer wind shear and warm sea 
surface temperatures. The statistical-dynamical SHIPS guidance 
indicates gradual strengthening will occur over the next several 
days. However, global models including the GFS and ECMWF, along with 
the HWRF and HMON, forecast little intensity change or even 
weakening as the system meanders well offshore. This could be a 
product of the system struggling to separate from the Intertropical 
Convergence Zone (ITCZ), or possible upwelling as it drifts over the 
same general area for several days. Given these mixed signals in the 
guidance, the NHC intensity forecast remains close to the previous 
advisory and only shows modest strengthening during the forecast 
period. This forecast still lies slightly above the IVCN and HCCA 
consensus aids.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 13.3N 105.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 13.8N 106.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 14.0N 106.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 13.8N 106.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 13.7N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  08/1200Z 13.9N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 14.1N 106.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 14.5N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky
 
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