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Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
200 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020
 
Deep convection associated with Maria has all but dissipated and
what is left of it has been located over 120 n mi from the exposed
low-level center of the cyclone since around 1400 UTC this morning.
A recent ASCAT overpass shows the maximum winds have decreased to
43 kt as of 1800 UTC, and assuming weakening has continued since
that time, 40 kt will be the initial advisory intensity.
 
There are no reasons to believe that the deep convection will 
redevelop near the center of Marie, as the cyclone is forecast to 
remain in a hostile environment of 30 plus kt of wind shear, SSTs 
cooler than 25 degrees C, and a surrounding dry and stable airmass. 
Therefore, Maria is expected to be declared a remnant low by 
tonight. The remnant low should gradually spin down and open into a 
trough by late this week.
 
Marie continues to move west-northwestward at about 8 kt around a
mid-level ridge to its north. A turn to the west-southwest is
expected in a couple of days as low- mid-level ridging builds to the
northwest of what's left of the cyclone. The latest NHC track
forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the
various track consensus forecasts.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 21.4N 132.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 21.8N 133.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  06/1800Z 22.5N 135.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/0600Z 23.0N 136.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1800Z 23.4N 137.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  08/0600Z 23.3N 138.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/1800Z 23.1N 139.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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