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Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020
Deep convection associated with Maria has all but dissipated and
what is left of it has been located over 120 n mi from the exposed
low-level center of the cyclone since around 1400 UTC this morning.
A recent ASCAT overpass shows the maximum winds have decreased to
43 kt as of 1800 UTC, and assuming weakening has continued since
that time, 40 kt will be the initial advisory intensity.
There are no reasons to believe that the deep convection will
redevelop near the center of Marie, as the cyclone is forecast to
remain in a hostile environment of 30 plus kt of wind shear, SSTs
cooler than 25 degrees C, and a surrounding dry and stable airmass.
Therefore, Maria is expected to be declared a remnant low by
tonight. The remnant low should gradually spin down and open into a
trough by late this week.
Marie continues to move west-northwestward at about 8 kt around a
mid-level ridge to its north. A turn to the west-southwest is
expected in a couple of days as low- mid-level ridging builds to the
northwest of what's left of the cyclone. The latest NHC track
forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the
various track consensus forecasts.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 21.4N 132.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/1800Z 22.5N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/0600Z 23.0N 136.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1800Z 23.4N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/0600Z 23.3N 138.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1800Z 23.1N 139.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Latto
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