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Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
200 AM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020

Satellite images show the exposed low-level circulation well to the 
southwest of any remaining deep convection.  ASCAT data, however, 
came in at 50-55 kt just before 06Z, which is higher than the 
satellite presentation alone would suggest.  The initial wind speed 
is set to 55 kt on the basis of that data.  Marie should weaken 
during the next few days due to cold waters and strong shear.  
Models are in very good agreement on a steady weakening, and little 
change was made to the previous forecast.  Remnant low status is 
expected by 48 hours, and could even happen sooner based on current 
trends.

The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 8 kt this morning.  
A ridge to the north should steer Marie to the northwest or 
west-northwest for the next couple of days, then the tropical 
cyclone is likely to turn westward as it becomes a more shallow 
feature. Model guidance has generally been adjusting to this 
scenario, with a mid-latitude trough no longer expected to exert 
much influence.  The new forecast is shifted southward from 48 
hours and beyond, near but a little slower than the model consensus.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 20.8N 131.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 21.2N 132.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 21.8N 133.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 22.4N 135.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 22.9N 136.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/1800Z 23.2N 137.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0600Z 23.2N 138.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/0600Z 23.0N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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