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Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
800 PM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020
 
Marie crossed the 26 degree SST isotherm earlier this evening and
the cold waters and accompanying dry,stable air are having a big
impact on the storm. Recent microwave imagery shows that the
hurricane no longer has an closed eyewall in the southern portion of
its inner core. Furthermore, cloud top temperatures have warmed and
the hurricane's eye is barely discernible. A blend of Final-T and CI
Dvorak numbers from TAFB is the primary basis for the initial
intensity of 100 kt.
 
Continued rapid weakening is anticipated for the next 36 to 48 h as
Marie encounters very hostile environmental conditions. After that
time, continued weakening is likely and most of the dynamical
models indicate that the cyclone will lose its convection by around
day 5, if not a little sooner.
 
The hurricane is moving northwestward near 7 kt. A ridge extending 
westward from southwestern U.S. should keep Marie moving generally 
west-northwestward or northwestward at about the same forward speed 
for the next several days. Near the end of the forecast period, 
Marie will likely turn northward ahead of a deep layer trough 
approaching from the northwest. The spread in the track guidance is 
quite low, and confidence in the track forecast is fairly high, 
particularly since almost no change was made to the previous 
advisory forecast. Both the track and intensity forecasts are based 
on the multi-model consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 19.5N 127.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 20.2N 128.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 20.9N 130.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 21.6N 131.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 22.3N 132.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  06/1200Z 22.9N 133.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 23.7N 135.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 24.7N 136.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 26.0N 136.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
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