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Hurricane MARIE

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020
Marie is finally beginning to show signs of weakening. Recent 
GOES-17 infrared satellite imagery indicates cloud tops are warming 
in the western eyewall, and water vapor imagery shows drier air 
impinging on the western periphery of the storm. Despite this, 
there is still deep convection with cloud tops colder than -70 
degrees Celsius persisting in the eastern eyewall. The initial 
intensity is slightly lowered to 110 kt with this advisory based on 
a blend of TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications and a 16 UTC SATCON 
estimate of 114 kt.
Marie is likely beginning to experience increased deep-layer 
southwesterly wind shear as it moves toward the 26 degree Celsius 
sea surface temperature isotherm. With environmental conditions 
becoming increasingly hostile, Marie is expected to steadily, and 
perhaps rapidly, weaken over the next several days. Marie is 
forecast to weaken into a tropical storm within 36 hours, as the 
storm moves over cooler waters and into an environment with 30 kt of 
vertical wind shear. Steady weakening should continue through early 
next week, and the system is expected to become a tropical 
depression by Wednesday and a remnant low on Thursday. Now that the 
system is finally weakening, the latest NHC intensity forecast 
reflects a more rapid downward trend supported by the model 
consensus aids.
Marie's initial motion is 325/8 kt, slightly more northwestward
than the previous advisory. Marie should continue moving 
northwestward or west-northwestward for the next several days along 
the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the 
southwestern United States. The latest model guidance remains 
tightly clustered during the first 2-3 days of the forecast. Then, 
the bulk of the guidance indicates Marie will slow down and turn 
more northward late next week ahead of a deep-layer trough to the 
north of the storm. Given this recurving scenario, there is more 
significant spread in the guidance at day 4 and beyond, with the 
GFS still farther to the right than most other models. Overall, the 
official NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly right of the 
previous one in agreement with the TVCE/HCCA aids.
INIT  03/2100Z 19.1N 127.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 19.8N 128.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 20.6N 129.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 21.3N 130.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 21.9N 131.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  06/0600Z 22.5N 133.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 23.0N 134.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 24.0N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 25.5N 136.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Forecaster Reinhart/Berg