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Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020
Marie is finally beginning to show signs of weakening. Recent
GOES-17 infrared satellite imagery indicates cloud tops are warming
in the western eyewall, and water vapor imagery shows drier air
impinging on the western periphery of the storm. Despite this,
there is still deep convection with cloud tops colder than -70
degrees Celsius persisting in the eastern eyewall. The initial
intensity is slightly lowered to 110 kt with this advisory based on
a blend of TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications and a 16 UTC SATCON
estimate of 114 kt.
Marie is likely beginning to experience increased deep-layer
southwesterly wind shear as it moves toward the 26 degree Celsius
sea surface temperature isotherm. With environmental conditions
becoming increasingly hostile, Marie is expected to steadily, and
perhaps rapidly, weaken over the next several days. Marie is
forecast to weaken into a tropical storm within 36 hours, as the
storm moves over cooler waters and into an environment with 30 kt of
vertical wind shear. Steady weakening should continue through early
next week, and the system is expected to become a tropical
depression by Wednesday and a remnant low on Thursday. Now that the
system is finally weakening, the latest NHC intensity forecast
reflects a more rapid downward trend supported by the model
consensus aids.
Marie's initial motion is 325/8 kt, slightly more northwestward
than the previous advisory. Marie should continue moving
northwestward or west-northwestward for the next several days along
the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the
southwestern United States. The latest model guidance remains
tightly clustered during the first 2-3 days of the forecast. Then,
the bulk of the guidance indicates Marie will slow down and turn
more northward late next week ahead of a deep-layer trough to the
north of the storm. Given this recurving scenario, there is more
significant spread in the guidance at day 4 and beyond, with the
GFS still farther to the right than most other models. Overall, the
official NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly right of the
previous one in agreement with the TVCE/HCCA aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 19.1N 127.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 19.8N 128.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 20.6N 129.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 21.3N 130.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 21.9N 131.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 22.5N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 23.0N 134.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 24.0N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 25.5N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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