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Hurricane MARIE (Text)


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Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
800 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020
 
Marie shows little signs of weakening this morning as its satellite 
presentation remains impressive. A closed ring of eyewall 
convection with cloud top temperatures colder than -65 degrees C 
surrounds a well-defined 20 nm eye. The initial intensity is 
maintained at 115 kt based on a T6.0 Dvorak classification from 
SAB, which is supported by the latest ADT estimates.

Marie is approaching an environment of increasing deep-layer 
southwesterly shear and SSTs below 26 degrees Celsius, which should 
induce weakening beginning later today that will continue through 
early next week. The latest SHIPS guidance indicates the vertical 
wind shear will strengthen to 30 kt by Mon and continue increasing 
through the end of the 5-day forecast period. Therefore, Marie is 
forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by early Monday and a 
tropical depression by the middle of next week. The NHC intensity 
forecast is held a bit higher than the model consensus through the 
first 12-24 hours of the forecast, since Marie has yet to show 
signs of weakening. As the environmental conditions become 
increasingly hostile, the official forecast shows more rapid 
weakening in line with the consensus intensity guidance. By day 5, 
simulated satellite imagery suggests the system will be a remnant 
low devoid of deep convection.
 
Marie's initial motion is 310/8 kt, and the system is expected to 
generally continue moving northwestward for the next several days 
along the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge. A deep-layer 
trough is expected to dig north of Marie during the middle of 
next week, which should begin turning the system more northward 
toward the end of the 5-day forecast period. A larger spread in the 
guidance is noted at days 4-5, as it remains somewhat unclear how 
much the trough will influence the weakening system based on timing 
differences between the GFS and ECMWF models. Overall, the NHC 
track forecast remains fairly close to the previous one, with 
slight changes based on the consensus aids including TVCE and HCCA. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 18.4N 126.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 19.1N 127.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 20.0N 128.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 20.6N 129.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 21.2N 131.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  06/0000Z 21.9N 132.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 22.5N 133.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 23.5N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 24.5N 136.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
 
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2020 12:11:39 UTC