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Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020
Marie continues to be a powerful and dangerous hurricane. Cloud tops
surrounding the eye have cooled and the center is now surrounded by
a ring of convection with tops colder than -70 degrees C. The latest
Dvorak intensity estimate ranges have narrowed considerably to
115-122 kt, so there is higher confidence in the cyclone's strength.
The initial advisory intensity is being kept at 115 kt and is in
agreement with both of the subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB.
The environment surrounding Marie will soon become rather hostile
and the hurricane will likely not maintain this intensity for much
longer. By later today, increasing southwesterly winds aloft should
begin to degrade the symmetry of the cyclone. Later tonight, the
cyclone is forecast to cross the 26 degree C SST isotherm. And by
Monday, Marie is expected be in an environment characterized by
vertical wind shear greater than 30 kt, low- to mid-level relative
humidity values of less than 40 percent, and over waters cooler than
25 degrees C. These increasingly negative factors are expected to
cause Marie to begin weakening later today, with rapid weakening
possible Sunday into Monday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is in
good agreement with the various consensus intensity guidance, and
indicates that Marie should weaken to a tropical storm on Sunday
night and a tropical depression early next week. By the end of the
forecast period, the system is expected to become a post tropical
cyclone devoid of deep convection.
Marie continues to move northwestward and is forecast to continue to
do so through the remainder of the weekend as it moves along the
southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge. The ridge is forecast to
expand westward early next week, which should force the cyclone to
turn to the west-northwest. Toward the end of the 5-day forecast
period, a large deep-layer trough north of Marie should cause it to
begin a turn to the right. The NHC track forecast is little changed
from the previous one, and is close to the HFIP corrected consensus
HCCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 17.9N 126.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 18.6N 127.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 19.5N 128.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 20.3N 129.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 20.9N 130.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 21.5N 131.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 22.0N 133.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 23.0N 135.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 24.5N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Latto
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