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Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
200 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020
 
Marie remains a powerful hurricane this afternoon. A 1530 UTC SSMIS 
91 GHz microwave image showed a well-defined, closed eyewall with a 
20 nm eye, which is still evident in recent GOES-17 visible and 
infrared satellite imagery. The initial intensity is held at 115 kt 
based on T6.0 Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, which are 
consistent with recent ADT and earlier SATCON estimates. The 34-kt 
radii are expanded slightly with this package based on recent ASCAT 
data. 

Marie is moving west-northwestward (295 degrees) at 10 kt, around 
the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the 
southwestern United States. A break in the ridge should allow Marie 
to turn northwestward within the next 24 hours and maintain that 
motion over the next several days. By day 5, an approaching 
upper-level trough moving across the eastern Pacific Ocean should 
turn Marie more toward the north-northwest. There is still more 
noticeable spread in the guidance at days 4 and 5, likely related 
to differences in the amplitude of the upper-level trough. It is 
worth noting that the GFS depicts a deeper upper trough, and thus a 
more drastic northerly turn, than the rest of the global models. 
Overall, the NHC forecast was again slowed down a bit and shifted 
slightly to the right to align better with the latest TVCE 
multi-model consensus and HCCA aids.  
 
Marie is expected to remain in a low-shear environment with sea 
surface temperatures of 26 degrees Celsius for the next 18-24 
hours. Although slight additional strengthening cannot be ruled 
out, the storm is running out of time before environmental 
conditions become more hostile. After 24 hours, increasing 
deep-layer southwesterly shear and cooler waters should support a 
steady weakening trend through the rest of the forecast period. 
Marie is expected to fall below hurricane strength by 60 hours and 
become a tropical depression by day 5. The latest NHC intensity 
forecast shows a slightly faster weakening trend and remains very 
close to the IVCN consensus and the HCCA aid.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 16.9N 125.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 17.6N 126.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 18.6N 127.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 19.5N 128.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 20.1N 129.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  05/0600Z 20.6N 130.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 21.2N 132.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 22.0N 134.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 23.5N 136.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
 
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