ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020
Marie remains a powerful hurricane this afternoon. A 1530 UTC SSMIS
91 GHz microwave image showed a well-defined, closed eyewall with a
20 nm eye, which is still evident in recent GOES-17 visible and
infrared satellite imagery. The initial intensity is held at 115 kt
based on T6.0 Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, which are
consistent with recent ADT and earlier SATCON estimates. The 34-kt
radii are expanded slightly with this package based on recent ASCAT
data.
Marie is moving west-northwestward (295 degrees) at 10 kt, around
the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the
southwestern United States. A break in the ridge should allow Marie
to turn northwestward within the next 24 hours and maintain that
motion over the next several days. By day 5, an approaching
upper-level trough moving across the eastern Pacific Ocean should
turn Marie more toward the north-northwest. There is still more
noticeable spread in the guidance at days 4 and 5, likely related
to differences in the amplitude of the upper-level trough. It is
worth noting that the GFS depicts a deeper upper trough, and thus a
more drastic northerly turn, than the rest of the global models.
Overall, the NHC forecast was again slowed down a bit and shifted
slightly to the right to align better with the latest TVCE
multi-model consensus and HCCA aids.
Marie is expected to remain in a low-shear environment with sea
surface temperatures of 26 degrees Celsius for the next 18-24
hours. Although slight additional strengthening cannot be ruled
out, the storm is running out of time before environmental
conditions become more hostile. After 24 hours, increasing
deep-layer southwesterly shear and cooler waters should support a
steady weakening trend through the rest of the forecast period.
Marie is expected to fall below hurricane strength by 60 hours and
become a tropical depression by day 5. The latest NHC intensity
forecast shows a slightly faster weakening trend and remains very
close to the IVCN consensus and the HCCA aid.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 16.9N 125.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 17.6N 126.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 18.6N 127.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 19.5N 128.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 20.1N 129.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 20.6N 130.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 21.2N 132.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 22.0N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 23.5N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
NNNN