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Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
800 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020
 
Marie has continued to become better organized this morning.  An 
AMSR image from just after 09Z showed a closed mid-level eyewall, 
and conventional satellite imagery shows an increasingly symmetric 
cloud pattern with very cold cloud tops, colder than -80C, around 
the center.  The current intensity estimate is set at 90 kt in 
agreement with Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB.   
Marie is moving over SSTs warmer than 28 deg C and in a moist, 
low-shear atmospheric environment.  The SHIPS guidance still shows 
a significant probability of rapid intensification through tonight, 
so Marie is likely to become a major hurricane quite soon.  The 
official forecast is a little above the latest corrected model 
consensus.  In a couple of days, the hurricane should be crossing 
the SST gradient and encountering cooler waters, so a weakening 
trend is anticipated to be underway within 48 hours.

The estimated initial motion is west-northwestward, or 285/15 kt.  
For the next couple of days, Marie should continue to move along 
the southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge associated with 
a high pressure system centered over California.  A slight turn to 
the right with some deceleration is expected during the forecast 
period due to a weakness in the ridge near 130W longitude.  By the 
end of the period, Marie is likely to turn toward the northwest 
while it moves through this weakness.  The official track forecast 
lies very close to the latest multi-model consensus, TVCE, 
prediction.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 15.2N 119.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 15.9N 121.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 16.8N 124.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 17.8N 126.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 18.8N 127.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  04/0000Z 19.6N 129.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 20.4N 130.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 21.7N 133.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 23.8N 136.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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