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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
900 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020
The tropical cyclone is gradually becoming better organized, with a
Central Dense Overcast feature developing near/over the estimated
center. The system is experiencing moderate east-northeasterly
shear which is currently restricting upper-level outflow over the
eastern semicircle of the system. Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and SAB indicate that the cyclone's maximum winds are near 30 kt.
The dynamical guidance indicates that the shear will soon diminish,
and the atmospheric and oceanic environment is expected to be quite
conducive for strengthening during the next few days. The
official forecast shows steady intensification with the system
becoming a tropical storm by tonight and a hurricane within 72
hours. This is a little below the latest intensity model
consensus, which suggests that that the cyclone could be near major
hurricane status in about 72 hours.
The center is not easy to locate at this time, so the initial motion
estimate of 280/9 kt is more uncertain than usual. A strengthening
subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should
maintain a westward or west-northwestward motion at an increased
forward speed for the next 72 hours or so. In 4-5 days, a weakness
in the ridge in the vicinity of 130W longitude should cause the
system to turn toward the northwest. The official track forecast
is a little north and northeast of the latest model consensus.
The dynamical guidance shows an expanding wind field with the
tropical cyclone, and the official wind radii forecasts, especially
beyond 2 days, are in close agreement with the consensus wind radii
forecast technique, RVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 13.3N 108.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 13.8N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 14.4N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 14.6N 116.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 14.7N 119.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 15.4N 121.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 16.4N 124.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 18.9N 127.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 21.0N 130.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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