ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172020
500 AM HST Fri Sep 25 2020
 
Lowell has produced almost no deep convection within 100 n mi of its
center for more than 12 hours. As noted in the previous advisory,
although there is still a small patch of convection well to
east-northeast, it is pushing the boundaries of what can reasonably
be considered as organized deep convection. If convection does not
redevelop closer to Lowell's center soon, it could become
post-tropical as soon as this afternoon. Earlier ASCAT-C data showed
a wide area of winds around 35 kt, so the intensity is held at that
value for this advisory.
 
There were no noteworthy changes made to the NHC forecast. Low- to 
mid-level ridging to the north of Lowell is expected to steer the 
cyclone just south of due west for the next several days. A break in 
the ridge could allow it to turn northward near day 5. A combination 
of cool ocean temperatures and westerly shear should prevent the 
redevelopment of organized convection, and Lowell will gradually 
spin down as a result. The NHC forecast conservatively shows a day 5 
point, but Lowell could also dissipate by then. The NHC forecast is 
near the middle of the tightly clustered track and intensity 
guidance envelopes.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 21.6N 129.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 21.5N 131.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/1200Z 21.3N 133.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  27/0000Z 21.2N 136.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/1200Z 21.1N 139.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  28/0000Z 21.1N 141.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/1200Z 21.1N 143.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/1200Z 21.5N 147.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/1200Z 23.0N 150.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
NNNN