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Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172020
1100 PM HST Thu Sep 24 2020
 
Only a small area of deep convection is lagging about 100 n mi east 
of Lowell's center, but a recent scatterometer pass showed that 
maximum winds are still around 35 kt.  The areal coverage of 
Lowell's convection and its distance from the center already put it 
on the margins of what is considered organized deep convection. 
Cold waters and increasing westerly to southwesterly shear 
over the next 24 hours should finally do the convection in, causing 
Lowell to lose tropical cyclone status on Friday.  Even stronger 
shear is forecast to cause the remnant low to gradually weaken 
through the end of the 5-day forecast period.

Fixes based on infrared and microwave satellite imagery indicate 
that Lowell has begun to lose some latitude, and the initial motion 
is just south of due west (265/10 kt).  The south-of-due-west 
motion is forecast to continue for the next 2-3 days courtesy of 
strong low- to mid-level ridging north of Lowell.  The remnant low 
should then gradually turn toward the west-northwest and slow down 
by the end of the forecast period when it reaches a break in the 
ridge ahead of a cold front north of the Hawaiian Islands.  The new 
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous prediction and 
remains embedded within the tightly clustered guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0900Z 21.6N 128.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 21.5N 129.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 21.4N 132.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/1800Z 21.3N 135.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0600Z 21.2N 137.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  27/1800Z 21.1N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/0600Z 21.1N 142.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/0600Z 21.5N 146.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/0600Z 22.7N 149.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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