ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
1100 PM HST Thu Sep 24 2020
Only a small area of deep convection is lagging about 100 n mi east
of Lowell's center, but a recent scatterometer pass showed that
maximum winds are still around 35 kt. The areal coverage of
Lowell's convection and its distance from the center already put it
on the margins of what is considered organized deep convection.
Cold waters and increasing westerly to southwesterly shear
over the next 24 hours should finally do the convection in, causing
Lowell to lose tropical cyclone status on Friday. Even stronger
shear is forecast to cause the remnant low to gradually weaken
through the end of the 5-day forecast period.
Fixes based on infrared and microwave satellite imagery indicate
that Lowell has begun to lose some latitude, and the initial motion
is just south of due west (265/10 kt). The south-of-due-west
motion is forecast to continue for the next 2-3 days courtesy of
strong low- to mid-level ridging north of Lowell. The remnant low
should then gradually turn toward the west-northwest and slow down
by the end of the forecast period when it reaches a break in the
ridge ahead of a cold front north of the Hawaiian Islands. The new
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous prediction and
remains embedded within the tightly clustered guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 21.6N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 21.5N 129.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 21.4N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/1800Z 21.3N 135.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0600Z 21.2N 137.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/1800Z 21.1N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0600Z 21.1N 142.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0600Z 21.5N 146.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0600Z 22.7N 149.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Berg
NNNN