ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020 1100 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2020 Lowell is producing a small amount of deep convection over the northeastern quadrant, but it is otherwise largely a low-level cloud swirl. A recent partial ASCAT pass still showed an area of 35-40 kt winds to the north of the center, and based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. The cyclone is already over cool 25 C waters and it is headed for even cooler waters during the next day or two. These unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a stable air mass and an increase in westerly shear should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low within the next 36 hours. The remnant low is expected to gradually weaken through the end of the forecast period. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. A sightly faster westward motion is expected during the next several days as the storm moves on the south side of a deep-layer high pressure system. The models are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 21.7N 125.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 21.9N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 21.8N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 21.7N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1800Z 21.5N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0600Z 21.4N 138.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1800Z 21.4N 140.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1800Z 21.7N 145.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1800Z 22.3N 148.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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