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Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172020
1100 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2020
 
Lowell is producing a small amount of deep convection over the
northeastern quadrant, but it is otherwise largely a low-level cloud
swirl.  A recent partial ASCAT pass still showed an area of 35-40 kt
winds to the north of the center, and based on that data, the
initial intensity is held at 40 kt. The cyclone is already over cool
25 C waters and it is headed for even cooler waters during the next
day or two.  These unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a
stable air mass and an increase in westerly shear should cause the
cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low within the next 36 hours.
The remnant low is expected to gradually weaken through the end of
the forecast period.
 
The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt.  A 
sightly faster westward motion is expected during the next several 
days as the storm moves on the south side of a deep-layer high 
pressure system.  The models are tightly clustered, and the NHC 
track forecast is similar to the previous one.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 21.7N 125.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 21.9N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 21.8N 129.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 21.7N 132.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/1800Z 21.5N 135.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  27/0600Z 21.4N 138.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/1800Z 21.4N 140.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/1800Z 21.7N 145.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1800Z 22.3N 148.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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