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Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172020
500 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2020
 
Lowell hasn't changed much. Cloud tops associated with the areas of 
remaining convection east of the lowly tropical storm's center have 
warmed slightly during the past few hours, but not enough to change 
satellite intensity estimates. The intensity is therefore held at 
40 kt, in line with earlier ASCAT data.
 
Virtually no change was made to any aspect of the NHC forecast. A 
mid-level ridge to the north of Lowell will likely steer the 
tropical storm westward for the next day or two. Lowell will move 
over gradually cooler waters and should weaken in response. A 
favorable upper-air environment may help the tropical cyclone to 
maintain its convection for up to 36 hours, but an increase in 
westerly wind shear should put an end to any remaining organized 
convection after that. Based on simulated satellite fields, several 
models forecast that it will become a remnant low even sooner than 
that. Low-level tradewind flow should take over the steering once 
the cyclone becomes a shallow remnant low, resulting in a slightly 
faster, but generally similar westward motion. Both the track and 
intensity forecasts are nearly identical to the multi-model 
consensus throughout the forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z 21.5N 124.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 21.7N 126.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 21.8N 128.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 21.7N 131.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 21.5N 133.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  27/0000Z 21.4N 136.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/1200Z 21.4N 139.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/1200Z 21.5N 144.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1200Z 21.5N 148.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
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