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Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172020
500 PM HST Wed Sep 23 2020
 
A band of deep convection continues over the eastern portion of
Lowell's circulation, however visible satellite imagery and a 2318
UTC SSMI microwave overpass indicate that the center is exposed to
the west of that band.  Subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates have decreased and a blend those yields an
initial wind of 40 kt, which is used for this advisory.
 
The moderate northwesterly shear that is currently plaguing Lowell
is not expected to abate much, so little overall change in strength
in anticipated through early Thursday. After that time, gradually
decreasing sea surface temperatures and a drier and more stable air
mass is predicted to result in gradual weakening.  Increasing 
westerly shear in about 48 hours should be too much for the 
tropical cyclone, and Lowell is expected to degenerate into a 
remnant low in 60-72 hours.  The updated NHC intensity forecast
is a little below the IVCN intensity consensus and favors the
slightly lower statistical guidance.
 
The initial motion estimate is still west-northwestward or 285/10
kt. A large deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north and northeast
of Lowell is forecast to build westward during the next few days.
This synoptic pattern should cause Lowell to turn westward 
overnight and then continue on a generally westward heading for the 
next several days. There are still some forward speed
(along-track) differences among the various dynamical models, but
the NHC track again uses a blend of the various consensus aids,
which typically is the best approach when those longer-range
differences are noted.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0300Z 21.0N 122.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 21.3N 124.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 21.6N 126.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 21.7N 128.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 21.7N 130.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  26/1200Z 21.6N 132.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 21.5N 135.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/0000Z 21.4N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/0000Z 21.8N 145.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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