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Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
900 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2020
Last few visible images showed that the depression's surface
circulation remains poorly organized with a small swirl of clouds
displaced just to the north of the deep convective mass. The
initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on the unchanged
subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.
The statistical-dynamical intensity guidance and the skilled
consensus models all point to steady intensification through day 3.
Toward the end of the period, the tropical cyclone should encounter
an inhibiting dry stable air mass and cooler oceanic surface
temperatures, which should lead to a gradual weakening trend. The
NHC intensity forecast shows a peak intensity just under hurricane
strength on Wednesday and is just below the HCCA intensity
consensus and close to the Decay SHIPS.
The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward at 6 kt,
and this motion is predicted to continue through Wednesday. The
subtropical ridge currently steering the cyclone is forecast to
build farther westward over the tropical eastern Pacific which
should induce a westward turn toward the end of the week. The NHC
forecast is basically an update of the previous one and based on
the various consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 16.1N 109.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 16.7N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 17.9N 112.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 18.9N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 19.6N 117.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 20.0N 119.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 20.3N 120.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 20.4N 123.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 20.7N 126.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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