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Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172020
300 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2020
 
The area of disturbed weather several hundred miles south of the 
southern tip of Baja California has developed enough organized deep 
convection and a well-enough defined center to declare it a tropical 
cyclone.  This is supported by subjective Dvorak classifications 
from both SAB and TAFB with an initial intensity of 25 kt. The 
initial motion is an uncertain 275 degrees at 9 kt.

As the system should be moving over warm 29C SSTs, encountering 
moist mid-level humidities, and experiencing low to moderate amounts 
of tropospheric vertical shear, steady intensification is expected 
through the next three days. Around days four and five, the tropical 
cyclone should encounter both drier air and cooler SSTs, likely 
curtailing any further development and leading toward slow 
weakening.  The intensity forecast is between the bullish dynamical 
models calling for a peak at a Category 1 hurricane in about three 
days, and the bearish statistical guidance suggesting a moderate to 
high-end tropical storm at the system's peak.
 
The track models are in much better agreement with all suggesting a 
turn toward the west-northwest at a slightly faster forward speed 
for the next three days, under the steering influence of a narrow 
deep-layer ridge north of the system. By day four, an amplifying 
ridge north of the tropical cyclone should turn it back toward the 
west again. The track forecast is based upon the HCCA corrected 
consensus technique.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 15.8N 109.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 16.2N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 17.3N 112.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 18.5N 114.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 19.3N 117.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  23/0600Z 19.7N 119.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  23/1800Z 20.1N 120.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  24/1800Z 20.5N 124.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  25/1800Z 20.5N 127.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Landsea
 
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