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TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162020
0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 117.1W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  35 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 100SE 130SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 117.1W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 116.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.7N 118.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  90SE 110SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.4N 119.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  80SE  80SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.2N 121.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 21.0N 122.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.8N 123.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.3N 124.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 22.5N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 117.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 
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