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TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162020
1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 114.7W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE   0SE  80SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 114.7W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 114.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.3N 115.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  40SE  90SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.0N 117.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  90SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.7N 119.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  90SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.2N 120.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.9N 121.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.7N 122.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 22.6N 125.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.8N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 114.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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