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Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162020
800 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020
 
Very little deep convection with cloud tops of -40C remains this 
morning, and what's left is located well to the west-northwest of 
the center of circulation.  There could still be a few 35-kt winds 
remaining in that particular area, which was identified earlier by 
a scatterometer pass, so the initial intensity is held at a generous 
35 kt for this advisory.  Karina is expected to continue traversing 
cooler waters while moving farther into an inhibiting thermodynamic 
environment and unfavorable upper-level winds.  Therefore, weakening 
is forecast and Karina should degenerate to a remnant low tonight.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/7 kt. A 
turn back toward the west-northwest is expected later today and 
the cyclone should continue on this general motion through 
Thursday night.  A westward turn is forecast on Friday as Karina 
degenerates to a remnant low and is steered by the low-level 
tradewind flow. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 22.6N 123.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 23.2N 125.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  17/1200Z 23.8N 126.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/0000Z 24.0N 127.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1200Z 23.9N 128.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  19/0000Z 23.6N 129.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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