ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
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Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
800 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020
Very little deep convection with cloud tops of -40C remains this
morning, and what's left is located well to the west-northwest of
the center of circulation. There could still be a few 35-kt winds
remaining in that particular area, which was identified earlier by
a scatterometer pass, so the initial intensity is held at a generous
35 kt for this advisory. Karina is expected to continue traversing
cooler waters while moving farther into an inhibiting thermodynamic
environment and unfavorable upper-level winds. Therefore, weakening
is forecast and Karina should degenerate to a remnant low tonight.
The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/7 kt. A
turn back toward the west-northwest is expected later today and
the cyclone should continue on this general motion through
Thursday night. A westward turn is forecast on Friday as Karina
degenerates to a remnant low and is steered by the low-level
tradewind flow.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 22.6N 123.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 23.2N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 17/1200Z 23.8N 126.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0000Z 24.0N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z 23.9N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/0000Z 23.6N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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