ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162020
200 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020
 
Karina is weakening in a hurry.  Deep convection near the center
has largely dissipated, and the only area of lingering convection is
in the northeastern quadrant.  An ASCAT overpass from around 0500
UTC showed maximum winds in the 30-35 kt range, and based on that
data the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt.
 
The tropical storm is already in unfavorable conditions of cool 25
C waters and a dry and stable airmass.  Since Karina will be moving
over even cooler waters and into an environment of stronger
southerly wind shear, continued weakening is expected.  Karina is
now forecast to become a remnant low by 24 hours and dissipate
within a few days.
 
Karina is moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt as it remains
steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast.  A continued
west-northwest to northwest motion should continue for about
another day, but after Karina becomes a shallow remnant low it is
expected to turn westward within the low-level trade winds.  The
NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0900Z 21.7N 123.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 22.4N 124.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 23.1N 126.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/1800Z 23.5N 127.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/0600Z 23.4N 128.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  18/1800Z 23.1N 129.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
NNNN