Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Storm KARINA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020
 
Latest satellite images show little significant change in the 
organization of deep convection associated with Karina since the 
previous advisory. Although the thunderstorms are primarily 
limited to the southwest semicircle, they remain over the center, 
and outflow in the northeast semicircle appears somewhat improved 
in the last couple of hours. A blend of subjective Dvorak current 
intensity estimates of 3.0/45 kt from SAB/HFO and 3.5/55 kt from 
TAFB supports maintaining an initial intensity of 50 kt.  

Karina is crossing the 26C isotherm with an initial motion estimate 
of 305/10 kt, and much cooler waters lie along the forecast track. 
Karina is being steered by a mid- and upper-level ridge to the 
centered to the northeast and north respectively, and the short 
term forecast anticipates some relaxation of the recent 
northeasterly shear as Karina rounds the ridges. This should lead to 
slow weakening in the short term, and as south to southwesterly 
shear increases after about 24 hours, Karina will continue 
to weaken. Simulated satellite imagery based on HWRF guidance 
indicates the cyclone will become convection-free within about 48 
hours, with dissipation following soon thereafter. As Karina 
weakens and becomes increasingly shallow, it will be steered by 
the low-level northeasterly trade wind flow supplied by a surface 
high centered to the distant northwest. 

The updated track forecast lies along the same trajectory as the 
previous, but is shifted slightly southward due to recent observed 
motion, and is near the middle of guidance envelope. The intensity 
forecast is essentially unchanged and closely follows trends 
presented by SHIPS and FSSE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 20.7N 122.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 21.6N 123.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 22.5N 124.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 23.2N 126.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 23.5N 127.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  18/0600Z 23.3N 128.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1800Z 22.5N 129.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard
 
NNNN