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Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152020
300 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020
 
Julio is a compact and well-defined tropical storm as indicated by 
recent satellite-derived wind data and microwave imagery, with the 
center located underneath the eastern portion of the deep 
convection.  A recent ASCAT overpass showed maximum winds of 39 kt, 
and based on this data the initial intensity has been increased to 
40 kt.
 
Julio has accelerated and is now moving west-northwestward at 18 kt 
around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This motion 
should continue for the next day or so, with a gradual decrease in 
forward speed. A turn to west is anticipated by Monday as the 
cyclone begins to weaken and becomes steered by the low-level flow. 
The latest forecast is similar to the previous one through 24 h, but 
was shifted southward thereafter in response to a southerly shift in 
the guidance. 
 
The intensity forecast for Julio is low confidence, as the global 
models have struggled to resolve the small size of the cyclone, 
resulting in a large spread in the intensity guidance. The SHIPS 
guidance suggests that the moderate easterly shear currently 
impacting Julio will decrease in 12-24 h, while the system is still 
over warm waters and in a moist atmospheric environment. Therefore, 
this guidance indicates that some slight strengthening is expected 
over the next couple of days. Despite the generally favorable 
conditions shown in the SHIPS guidance, the global models show no 
further intensification and weaken the cyclone almost immediately. 
Due to the resilience of Julio up until this point, the latest NHC 
intensity forecast leans towards the higher SHIPS guidance over the 
next day or so, then trends toward the lower global model forecasts 
later on in the forecast period. All of the global models suggest 
Julio will dissipate in a few days, and this is still being 
indicated in the NHC forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 17.6N 106.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 18.6N 108.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 19.5N 110.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 19.9N 112.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 20.1N 113.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  08/1800Z 20.2N 114.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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