ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020
1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2020
Satellite imagery, including recently received microwave
overpasses, shows that Julio has changed little in organization
during the past several hours, with the small low-level circulation
center is located near the eastern edge of the small area of
central convection. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on
continuity and a satellite intensity estimated from TAFB.
The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/15 kt. The latest
global models runs continue to have trouble resolving Julio, but
overall the cyclone is embedded in an east-southeasterly flow on
the southwest side of a mid-level ridge. A general west-
northwestward motion should continue with a decrease in forward
speed until the system dissipates. The new forecast track again
leans more toward the ECMWF model, which does the best job of
resolving Julio.
The tropical storm will be affected by moderate to strong easterly
wind shear for the next day or two, and only sight strengthening is
likely during that time. While the shear is forecast to diminish
after 24-36 h, the cyclone will encounter a drier and more stable
air mass at that time, which should lead to the dissipation of the
small system. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the
previous forecast, and it lies below the intensity consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 16.6N 104.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 17.5N 106.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 18.5N 108.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 19.4N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 20.3N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 21.1N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
NNNN