| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Tropical Storm ISELLE (Text)


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142020
900 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020
 
Most of the deep convection associated with Iselle has been 
displaced to the west of the center due to strong easterly shear 
caused by a large upper-level anticyclone to the northeast.  Based 
on the decreased organization, it is assumed that the cyclone has 
been gradually spinning down this evening, and the current 
intensity estimate is set at 35 kt.  Although the shear may relax a 
bit in a day or so, Iselle will be moving over increasingly cooler 
waters during that time.  Therefore, continued weakening is 
anticipated, and the system will likely degenerate into a remnant 
low in 12 to 24 hours.  The official intensity forecast is at the 
high end of the model guidance.

The cyclone has been moving north-northeastward, at around 020/8 
kt, on the west side of a mid-level high pressure area.  The 
weakening and increasingly shallow system should gradually turn to 
the left under the influence of the lower-level flow.  The official 
track forecast is about in the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 21.8N 114.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 22.9N 114.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  31/0000Z 23.9N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  31/1200Z 24.5N 114.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/0000Z 25.0N 115.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  01/1200Z 25.5N 115.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
NNNN

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2020 12:11:30 UTC