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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142020
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020

Earlier scatterometer data and GOES-16 Proxy-VIS satellite 
imagery indicate that the area of low pressure located several 
hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California 
peninsula has acquired sufficient convective organization and a 
well-defined surface circulation, and is now classified as a 
tropical cyclone.  Dvorak satellite intensity estimates and the 
aforementioned scatterometer data support an initial wind speed 
of 30 kt for this advisory.

Moderate to strong east-northeasterly shear, the same inhibiting 
upper wind pattern that is affecting depression Thirteen-E, is 
forecast to hamper significant development through the entire 
forecast period.  Therefore, only modest strengthening in the 
next 24 hours is expected, which agrees with the statistical- 
dynamical guidance and the large-scale models.

The depression is moving rather slowly toward the northeast, or 
040/2 kt.  The low to mid-level steering synoptic pattern consists 
of a cyclonic gyre stretching southwestward from Hurricane Laura 
over central Mexico and into the eastern Pacific.  This feature 
should cause the depression to continue in a northeastward general 
direction at a relatively slow pace through Friday.  Afterward, a 
gradual turn toward the north-northwest and west-northwest is 
expected as high pressure currently over the southwestern U.S. 
builds westward over the Baja California peninsula and adjacent 
eastern Pacific.  The NHC official forecast is a reflection of a 
blend of the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 15.4N 117.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 15.8N 116.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 16.4N 116.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 17.0N 115.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 17.8N 114.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  29/0000Z 18.6N 114.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 19.6N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 21.4N 114.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  31/1200Z 22.4N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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