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BULLETIN
Hurricane Genevieve Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122020
300 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2020
 
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINS...AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 110.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos
Santos
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from north of
Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles
to La Paz
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Genevieve was located 
near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 110.1 West. Genevieve is moving 
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn toward the 
northwest is expected tonight, with this motion continuing through 
Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of Genevieve is 
expected to move just southwest of the southern portion of the Baja 
California peninsula tonight and Thursday, and move away from the 
peninsula on Friday.

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has recently completed 
its investigation of the hurricane.  Data from this mission 
indicate that Genevieve was weaker than previously estimated and 
now has maximum winds near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts.  
Little change in strength is expected tonight, with gradual 
weakening anticipated Thursday through Friday. Genevieve is 
expected to remain a hurricane while it passes just west of the 
southern Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).
 
The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance 
aircraft is 974 mb (28.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area tonight and Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions will
spread northward within the warning area in the southern Baja 
California peninsula through Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions 
are possible within the watch area later tonight or Thursday 
morning, especially over higher terrain.
 
RAINFALL:  Genevieve is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to
6 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches across portions of far
southern Baja California Sur. This rainfall may lead to life- 
threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
 
SURF:  Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of
the west-central coast of Mexico and are spreading northward along 
the coast of the Baja California peninsula.  These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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