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HURRICANE GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122020
2100 UTC MON AUG 17 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES ON THE
EAST COAST TO TODOS SANTOS ON THE WEST COAST.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS
SANTOS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 104.6W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 104.6W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 103.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.6N 106.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  70SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  70SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.3N 109.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.6N 110.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.6N 111.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.8N 113.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  90SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 24.8N 116.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 27.2N 119.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 104.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 18/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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