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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122020
1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N  97.3W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N  97.3W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N  96.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 11.9N  99.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.9N 102.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.3N 105.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.9N 107.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N 109.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.2N 111.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 21.6N 113.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 23.8N 117.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N  97.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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