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Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122020
900 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2020
 
Genevieve continues to gradually weaken while it encounters cooler
waters and light to moderate southerly shear. Deep convection
associated with the system dissipated around the time of the
previous advisory, and the cyclone is now comprised of a swirl of
low- to mid-level clouds.  The initial intensity has been reduced to
40 kt, which is a blend of the latest TAFB Dvorak T- and CI-numbers.
Genevieve is expected to continue to gradually weaken today as it
moves over SSTs of 24-25 degrees Celsius.  It is unlikely that
organized deep convection will return, and Genevieve is expected to
become a post-tropical cyclone later today. The cyclone's winds are
forecast to drop below tropical storm strength within 12 hours, and
the remnant low should continue to spin down over cooler waters west
of the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days.
The global models indicate that the remnant low will dissipate in
about 72 hours.
 
Genevieve is moving northwestward at about 9 kt.  The cyclone should
continue on this general heading over the next couple of days as it
moves around the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge over
northern Mexico. The remnant low is forecast to decelerate by Sunday
as it becomes vertically shallow and is steered by the weaker
low-level flow.
 
Large swells from Genevieve that are spreading northward along
portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula will
gradually subside on Saturday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/1500Z 25.0N 114.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 26.1N 116.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  22/1200Z 27.6N 118.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/0000Z 28.7N 120.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/1200Z 29.5N 121.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  24/0000Z 30.3N 122.3W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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