ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020 900 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2020 Genevieve continues to gradually weaken while it encounters cooler waters and light to moderate southerly shear. Deep convection associated with the system dissipated around the time of the previous advisory, and the cyclone is now comprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. The initial intensity has been reduced to 40 kt, which is a blend of the latest TAFB Dvorak T- and CI-numbers. Genevieve is expected to continue to gradually weaken today as it moves over SSTs of 24-25 degrees Celsius. It is unlikely that organized deep convection will return, and Genevieve is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today. The cyclone's winds are forecast to drop below tropical storm strength within 12 hours, and the remnant low should continue to spin down over cooler waters west of the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. The global models indicate that the remnant low will dissipate in about 72 hours. Genevieve is moving northwestward at about 9 kt. The cyclone should continue on this general heading over the next couple of days as it moves around the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. The remnant low is forecast to decelerate by Sunday as it becomes vertically shallow and is steered by the weaker low-level flow. Large swells from Genevieve that are spreading northward along portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula will gradually subside on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 25.0N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 26.1N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 22/1200Z 27.6N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/0000Z 28.7N 120.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1200Z 29.5N 121.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/0000Z 30.3N 122.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2020 12:11:24 UTC