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Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122020
900 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020
 
Genevieve continues to gradually weaken.  Recent microwave images
indicate that the storm has become quite asymmetric with the
low-level center located on the southern edge of the main area of
deep convection.  The decay in the structure of the storm appears
to be the result of a combination of southerly wind shear and dry
air that has wrapped into that portion of the circulation.  The 
initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt, which is near the higher end 
of the satellite intensity estimates.  Surface observations from 
the southwestern coast of the Baja California Sur indicate that the 
storm is still producing tropical-storm-force winds there.
 
Genevieve has moved a little to the left recently, but a longer 
term motion is northwestward at 9 kt.  The weakening storm should 
continue to move generally northwestward during the next few days 
at roughly the same forward speed as it remains steered by a low- 
to mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States.  
This track should take the storm gradually away from the Baja 
California coast.  The NHC track forecast lies very near the 
multi-model consensus aids TVCE and HCCA.
 
Continued weakening is expected due to a combination of
increasingly southerly wind shear, dry air, and progressively
cooler SSTs.  Genevieve is likely to weaken to a tropical
depression in a day or so, and it is forecast to degenerate to a
remnant low in 36 to 48 hours.  The NHC intensity forecast lies 
near the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue for a few 
more hours over the southwestern coast of the Baja California
peninsula.
 
2. Large swells generated by Genevieve will continue to affect the
coast of the southern and central Baja California peninsula through
Friday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0300Z 24.2N 113.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 25.1N 114.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 26.4N 116.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 27.8N 118.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 29.0N 120.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  23/1200Z 29.7N 121.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  24/0000Z 30.5N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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