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Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122020
300 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020
 
Recent microwave overpasses and conventional enhanced infrared 
satellite imagery indicate that just a fragment of Genevieve's 
eyewall remains in the northeast quadrant.  Subjective satellite 
intensity estimates have once again decreased as well as an earlier 
SATCON analysis from UW-CIMSS.  Consequently, the initial intensity 
has been lowered to 70 kt based on a blend of these data.
 
Genevieve will continue traversing gradually cooler oceanic
temperatures today and Friday which will aid in additional spin 
down of the cyclone.  Afterward, Genevieve is forecast to move 
over much cooler SSTs, less than 25 degrees Celsius, which should 
induce a swifter weakening trend, and ultimately, cause the cyclone 
to degenerate into a remnant low in 60 hours.  The new NHC 
intensity forecast is based primarily on the HFIP Corrected 
Consensus Intensity model through 48 hours, then is adjusted  
to agree more with the global model guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 
330/6 kt, but a turn toward the northwest is forecast today.  This 
general motion should continue through the remainder of the 
forecast period.  On this track, the center of Genevieve will pass 
just to the southwest or west of the southern portion of the Baja 
California peninsula later today.  The updated forecast is near the
middle of the large-scale and regional model envelope, and just to 
the right of the previous advisory track.
 
Genevieve's wind radii were adjusted based on a 0422 UTC METOP-A/B
ASCAT overpass.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. The center of Genevieve is forecast to pass just west of the Baja
California peninsula today.  Tropical storm conditions are 
occurring over southern Baja California Sur and should continue 
today.  Hurricane conditions will continue for the next several 
hours within the Hurricane Warning area.
 
2. Heavy rainfall from Genevieve may lead to life-threatening flash 
flooding and mudslides across portions of far southern Baja 
California Sur through today.
 
3. Large swells generated by Genevieve will affect portions of
the west-central coast Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja
California peninsula through Friday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0900Z 22.5N 110.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 23.3N 111.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 24.4N 112.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 25.5N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 26.7N 116.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  22/1800Z 27.9N 118.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/0600Z 28.8N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/0600Z 30.4N 121.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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