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Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122020
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020
 
Data from a recent SSMIS microwave overpass reveals that an eye is 
trying to form underneath the deep convection of Genevieve, but 
there is some dry air near the center that may be disrupting the 
formation of a solid eyewall. Despite that dry air, large bands 
continue to the southwest and northwest of the center, and the deep 
convection over the center is expanding in size. The latest Dvorak 
satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB support raising 
the initial intensity to 65 kt, making Genevieve the third hurricane 
of the 2020 Eastern Pacific hurricane season.
 
Genevieve jogged a little northwest over the past few hours, but the
longer term motion has been west-northwest at 16 kt. The main
steering mechanism for the cyclone is a strong mid-level ridge which
extends from the southwestern United States southeastward into
Mexico. The model guidance varies slightly on the strength and
orientation of this ridge over the next few days, which could play a
role in how close Genevieve gets to the southern portion of the Baja
California Peninsula. The GFS is the farthest east, but still keeps
the center well offshore, while The UKMET is the westernmost
solution. Overall, the guidance has changed little since early this 
morning, and the official forecast is very near the previous track,
which lies near the TVCX/TVCE consensus.
 
The small amount of dry air near the center should get worked out 
of the circulation shortly, and there is high confidence that 
the rapid intensification of Genevieve will continue for the next 
24-36 h. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index (RII) shows a greater 
than 95 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in strength in the next 
24 h, and nearly an 80 percent chance of a 45 kt increase in 
the next 36 h. The global, regional, and consensus intensity aids 
all agree that rapid intensification will occur in one form or 
another during this time frame as well. The official intensity 
forecast is a blend of the HFIP corrected consensus and the IVCN 
consensus, and is very close to the previous forecast.
 
Large swells generated by Genevieve are expected to begin affecting
portions of the coast of southern Mexico today and will spread
northward along the coast of Mexico to the Baja California
peninsula by Wednesday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/1500Z 14.3N 103.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 15.4N 105.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 17.0N 107.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 18.4N 109.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 19.7N 110.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  20/0000Z 21.0N 111.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 22.2N 112.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  21/1200Z 24.3N 115.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  22/1200Z 26.4N 118.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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