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Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122020
1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020
 
Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure located 
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has increased and become 
better organized overnight and this morning.  In fact, bands of 
convection can be seen in both visible and infrared satellite 
imagery around the northwestern portion of the circulation.  Dvorak 
T-numbers from SAB and TAFB are a consensus 2.0, which supports an 
initial intensity of 30 kt.  The depression lies within a very 
favorable environment for strengthening.  These conditions 
consisting of warm waters and low vertical wind shear are expected 
to allow for rapid strengthening over the next 48-60 hours. Since 
the system is still in its organizational stage, intensification is 
likely to be a little more tempered today, but given these very 
favorable conditions a period of rapid strengthening is anticipated 
to begin by Monday and continue into Tuesday.  The statistical 
guidance and dynamical hurricane models are quite bullish on 
deepening, as are the global models.  The SHIPS RI index is 
showing a 64 percent chance of a 65 kt increase in wind speed over 
the next 72 hours.  Since nearly all of the intensity guidance is 
calling for a rather rapid increase in strength, this gives 
relatively high confidence that the system will become a hurricane 
in a day or two, and likely become a major hurricane within 72 
hours. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the SHIPS and HFIP 
correct consensus models. 

The depression is moving west-northwestward or 285/16 kt.  A strong 
deep layer ridge of high pressure over the western United States 
should steer the cyclone on a steady west-northwestward heading over 
the next several days.  The guidance suggests that there will be 
some reduction in forward speed and a turn toward the northwest 
later in the period as an upper-level low/trough retrogrades 
westward well west of the Baja California peninsula. For the first 
advisory package, the dynamical model guidance is tightly clustered 
and the NHC track lies closest to the HFIP corrected consensus 
model. 

Although the tropical cyclone is forecast to remain well offshore 
of the southern coast of Mexico, large swell generated by the 
strengthening system are expected to begin affecting portions of 
the coast of southern Mexico over the next day or so. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 11.3N  97.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 11.9N  99.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 12.9N 102.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 14.3N 105.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 15.9N 107.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  19/0000Z 17.5N 109.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  19/1200Z 19.2N 111.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  20/1200Z 21.6N 113.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  21/1200Z 23.8N 117.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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