ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Depression Fausto Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112020
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 17 2020
 
The last remaining bit of Fausto's deep convection dissipated 
around 10 PM PDT (0500 UTC), with the depression's center now over 
sea surface temperatures of about 23 degrees Celsius.  An ASCAT 
pass from several hours ago showed an area of 20-25 kt winds mainly 
to the northwest of the center, so the initial intensity is lowered 
to 25 kt.  Fausto is expected to move over slightly colder waters 
during the next few days, and it is unlikely that significant deep 
convection will be able to redevelop.  Therefore, maximum winds 
will continue to gradually decrease, and Fausto is expected to 
degenerate into a remnant low later today.  Based on global model 
fields, the remnant low is expected to dissipate in 2-3 days.

The ASCAT pass indicated that Fausto's center was a little farther 
south than previously estimated, and the initial motion is 
west-northwestward, or 295/15 kt.  High pressure in the low levels 
of the atmosphere to the west of California is expected to cause 
Fausto and its remnants to turn westward and west-southwestward 
with a gradual decrease in forward speed during the next couple of 
days.  The NHC track forecast is close to HCCA and the model 
consensus aids, and it's a little bit south of the previous 
official track to account for the southward adjustment of the 
initial position.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0900Z 23.1N 124.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 23.7N 126.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/0600Z 23.9N 128.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/1800Z 23.7N 130.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0600Z 23.0N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
NNNN