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Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020
The deep convection has decreased in coverage over the cyclone
today, but the center remains underneath clouds tops of about -60 C.
The initial intensity of 35 kt is supported by the latest Dvorak
satellite intensity estimate from TAFB, but this may be a little
generous based on late-arriving ASCAT overpass data. There is no
change to the forecast intensity philosophy. Fausto has crossed the
26 C SST isotherm and will be heading towards waters cooler than 24
C by Monday morning. Therefore a weakening trend is expected to
begin soon. The deep convection should decrease and the cyclone is
forecast degenerate to a remnant low Monday night.
Fausto has accelerated and is now moving northwestward at around 17
kt along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. As the
cyclone loses its convection, it should turn west or just south of
west as it becomes steered by the low-level flow. The official
forecast lies in the middle of tightly clustered guidance and is
little changed from the previous one.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/2100Z 21.5N 121.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 23.2N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 24.1N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 24.3N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1800Z 23.9N 130.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/0600Z 23.2N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Latto
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