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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112020
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020
 
The satellite presentation of the cyclone consists mainly of a 
circular area of deep convection with little evidence of banding 
features.  Scatterometer data suggest that the system is just below 
tropical storm strength.   Some slight strengthening could occur 
today while the cyclone is over marginally warm waters.  However, 
in 1-2 days, SSTs should drop below 24 deg C, and this should cause 
the system to weaken into a remnant low in 2-3 days.  The official 
intensity forecast is close to the corrected consensus model 
prediction.

Although there is some scatter in the center fixes, the depression 
is estimated to be moving north-northwestward, or 340/10 kt. Over 
the next day or two, the cyclone is expected to move northwestward 
to west-northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a 
mid-level ridge.  Later in the forecast period, the weakening 
system will likely turn westward or a little south of westward as 
it moves in the lower-level flow.  The official track forecast is a 
little to the left of the previous NHC forecast and about in the 
middle of the track guidance suite.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0900Z 19.5N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 21.4N 120.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 23.3N 123.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 24.4N 126.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 24.7N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  18/1800Z 24.3N 130.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0600Z 23.8N 132.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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