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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020
The satellite presentation of the cyclone consists mainly of a
circular area of deep convection with little evidence of banding
features. Scatterometer data suggest that the system is just below
tropical storm strength. Some slight strengthening could occur
today while the cyclone is over marginally warm waters. However,
in 1-2 days, SSTs should drop below 24 deg C, and this should cause
the system to weaken into a remnant low in 2-3 days. The official
intensity forecast is close to the corrected consensus model
prediction.
Although there is some scatter in the center fixes, the depression
is estimated to be moving north-northwestward, or 340/10 kt. Over
the next day or two, the cyclone is expected to move northwestward
to west-northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a
mid-level ridge. Later in the forecast period, the weakening
system will likely turn westward or a little south of westward as
it moves in the lower-level flow. The official track forecast is a
little to the left of the previous NHC forecast and about in the
middle of the track guidance suite.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0900Z 19.5N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 21.4N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 23.3N 123.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 24.4N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 24.7N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 24.3N 130.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z 23.8N 132.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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