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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112020
800 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020
 
The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring well offshore
the Baja California peninsula has become better defined during the
past several hours, and it appears to have a well-defined center.  
Since deep convection has persisted near the center, it now meets 
the criteria of a tropical depression.  The initial intensity is 
set at 30 kt based on 2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and SAB.
 
The depression is already nearing cooler waters, and it is expected
to cross the 26 C isotherm in about 12 hours.  These cooler waters
combined with a drier environment should prevent strengthening in
the short term, and cause the cyclone to become a remnant low in 36
to 48 hours, or maybe even sooner than that.  The global models
show the remnant low opening into a trough in 3 to 4 days.
 
The initial motion is quite uncertain given that the system has only
recently become well defined, but my best guess is
north-northwestward at 10 kt.   A strong mid-level ridge situated
over the southwestern U.S. should cause the cyclone to turn
northwestward soon and continue in that direction for the next
couple of days.  After that time, when the system is likely a
shallow remnant low, a turn to the west is predicted as it is
is steered by the low-level flow.  The track forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0300Z 18.4N 118.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 20.3N 119.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 22.5N 121.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 24.0N 124.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 24.9N 127.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  18/1200Z 25.3N 129.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0000Z 24.7N 131.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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