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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020
The depression continues as a marginal tropical cyclone. A small
burst of deep convection formed over the southwestern portion of
the circulation, but there is no evidence of convective banding.
The current intensity estimate remains at 30 kt in agreement with a
partial scatterometer overpass, but slightly above the latest
subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. The depression is
expected to remain in an environment of northeasterly shear for the
next several days, so no change in strength is called for during
the forecast period. It should be noted that if the cyclone were
to lose its convection for an extended time during the period, it
would degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low.
The cyclone is drifting northward, or about 360/02 kt, while
embedded in weak steering currents. A mid-level ridge is forecast
to build to the northwest of the system during the next few days.
This should cause the depression to turn toward the west and
west-southwest, albeit at a very slow forward speed, during the
period. This is in line with the latest model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0900Z 13.4N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 13.8N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 14.1N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 14.1N 134.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 14.0N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 13.8N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 13.5N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 13.0N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 12.3N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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